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By Himfr Tian
National Logistics Information Centre senior economist Chen Zhongtao a recent exclusive interview, said that in the second half, the pressure of upstream raw material prices may be easing.Chen Zhongtao engaged in the analysis of industrial price index of China’s manufacturing PMI (PMI index) monitoring. He told reporters that the first half, the pressure of higher raw material prices.
From the PMI index to reflect the purchase prices of raw materials price index, although the July drop to 60%, but still as high as 58.9%, reflecting the trend of rising raw material prices are still relatively strong. The feedback from the business point of view, reflecting the proportion of raw material prices continue to rise steadily company, in July was 34%, up 1 percentage point last month.
Different industries, the majority of the industry, price indices continue to maintain a high level. 20 industries, only less than 50% of fabricated metal products, and the remaining 19 industries all above 50%, of which 60% of the nine industries, especially oil processing and coking industry, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry as the highest two , 70% or more.
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Purchase price index higher in these sectors is divided into three categories: First, the main raw materials of petroleum crude oil processing and coking industry, the pharmaceutical industry; Second, grain and cotton and other agricultural products as raw materials for food processing and manufacturing and beverage manufacturing, garments manufacturing and fur feather products industry, textile industry;
Third, mineral resources as raw materials ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. “This year, the upstream raw material prices continued to rise, currently has manufacturing, business to enormous pressure, most enterprises have been unbearable to reflect.” Chenzhong Tao said.
However, according to China Logistics Information Center, market monitoring, the average price of capital goods market in China has experienced three consecutive months of continuous rise, the purchasing price index fell for two consecutive months: in June from up to down, and up down 0.34%; July is the first time in four months, dropped to below 60%.
Chen Zhongtao think this indicates that the second half of the upstream raw material prices pressures may be easing. Purchasing price index fell for the reason, he said, mainly upstream of the downstream industry unbearable rising raw materials prices, rising resistance to increase. But Chenzhong Tao also said, in the second half is still necessary for the state to continue to strengthen macro-control, stability, prices of upstream products, preventing transmission to the downstream increase in inflation pressure; while preventing the rising cost of normal production and operation of the business difficult.
This end, Chen Zhongtao suggest the department concerned in the present case, the resource cost increases caused the price of new commodity price adjustment measures, and the tax policy should be suspended to prevent cost-push inflation. At the same time take measures to restrain demand growth, to prevent the demand-pull inflation.
Continue to implement moderately tight fiscal policy, monetary policy, economic growth shifting from fast to prevent overheating, especially to prevent a larger rebound in fixed asset investment growth; speed up the implementation of the relevant industrial policies, speed up the implementation of energy conservation, the pace of eliminating backward production capacity; continue to take effective measures to firmly restrain the “two high and one capital” exports.
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